According to a report by Mirae Asset Securities, the Trade Defense Department has received a request to investigate imported hot-rolled steel from China for suspected evasion of anti-dumping tariffs. This is beneficial for Hoa Phat (HPG), which holds 36% of the HRC market share. This move will reduce the consumption of imported HRC and boost local HRC demand. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will make a final decision within 45 days, before November 2025.
Mirae Asset predicts that in 2025, Hoa Phat’s revenue and operating profit will significantly increase thanks to improvements in profit margins and stable consumption. HRC prices have been raised following pressure from raw material costs. The two main drivers for future growth are improved profit margins by Q4 2025 and accelerated capacity at Dung Quat 2.
Projected steel output for 2025 will rise by 20.6% year-on-year. If Hoa Phat maintains a high performance, production prospects may exceed current forecasts.
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