As of April 29, betting markets predict a contraction in US GDP for Q1 2025, reflecting a significant change from the previously positive outlook. This may suggest the onset of a recession, particularly as recent changes in trade policies intensify.
The revised predictions align with recent hawkish trade policies from Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, potentially creating uncertainty around US-Canada trade. The upcoming GDP report from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will provide further clarity on this complex economic landscape.
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