Market expectations have shifted dramatically. Just months ago, traders priced in as many as four rate cuts for this year. Now, futures markets reflect a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026. The shift reflects rising inflation concerns as oil prices surge past $100 per barrel, with gasoline prices up nearly 50%. These commodity pressures could limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates and may keep cryptocurrency markets volatile as investors reassess risk assets and real yields.
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