Increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January according to US interest rate futures

Federal funds rate futures suggest a heightened likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January, increasing from 26.6% to 28.8% following the release of Consumer Price Index data.

The US Consumer Price Index for November showed a smaller year-on-year increase than predicted, prompting traders to adjust their expectations for future rate cuts.

For 2026, the expectation has slightly risen, with traders now forecasting an easing of around 64 basis points.