Is a recession locked in? Traders assign high odds to economic trouble ahead

Recession odds in the U.S. Have risen sharply to 57%, with traders’ predictions on Polymarket indicating similar concerns. Kalshi reports an even higher likelihood of 61%, impacted by business confidence and ongoing inflation. Major firms have cited tariffs as a major factor influencing economic outlooks.

The Central Bank of Russia has noted that 53.5% of imports are now settled in rubles, reflecting a historic move away from the U.S. Dollar. This trend, particularly in Asia and Latin America, showcases Russia’s efforts to mitigate the effects of sanctions while enhancing trade independence.