As of July 10, 2025, a substantial 93.3% of participants predict the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged. The last rate cut occurred on December 18, 2024, bringing the rate to a range of 4.25%–4.50%.
President Trump has expressed growing frustration with the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell, highlighting a difference in approach compared to international central banks that have eased their rates.
Looking ahead, markets predict that by September, there could be a 63.9% chance of a quarter-point rate cut, reflecting potential shifts in investor sentiment leading up to the next meeting.
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