Vietcombank Securities predicts Hoa Phat (HPG) will achieve a record revenue of 178 trillion VND in 2025, up 28% year-on-year. The growth mainly comes from the domestic market as HRC steel consumption increased by 55.4% due to the Dung Quat 2 factory becoming operational. HPG will benefit from anti-dumping duties on imported steel and the shift in demand from imports to domestic production. Meanwhile, rising construction demand driven by government public investment and real estate projects in Hanoi will support this growth. HPG holds a 44% market share in the domestic steel industry. Challenges in exports may hinder growth, but HPG has opportunities to increase exports to the US and EU due to competitive tariff rates. It is projected that the domestic market will account for about 84% of total production. HPG expects growth from construction steels and HRC, while galvanized steel and pipes may be less favorable.
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