Oil and Gas Industry Forecast Q2/2025: While the whole industry reports big profits, why do two “giants” Petrolimex and BSR suffer declines of 35% and 91%?

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) forecasts a clear division in the oil and gas sector for Q2/2025. Upstream companies like PVS, GAS, and PVD are expected to report strong revenue and profit growth due to large projects and increased gas production. Specifically, PVS expects revenue of 5.986 trillion VND, with profit up 14%. PV Drilling predicts a 79% increase in after-tax profit amid rising rental rates for drilling rigs. In contrast, the downstream sector, including BSR and PLX, is projected to see significant profit declines due to high inventory costs. BSR expects revenue to increase by 32%, but profits fell by 91% to only 72 billion VND. Similarly, PLX forecasts an 8% revenue increase but a 35% decrease in after-tax profit due to high inventory costs and declining oil prices, which have pressured profit margins.