US option market now betting the Fed won’t cut rates at all in 2025

Speculators have opened more than 275,000 put option contracts on December SOFR futures, totaling nearly 25 million USD. This surge followed indications from Jerome Powell, suggesting no imminent rate adjustments as economic conditions remain stable.

The increased positions in the options market reflect a strong belief that expectations for rate cuts are waning, bolstered by recent positive economic data. This sentiment is shaping trading strategies, revealing a shift in trader confidence towards holding rates steady.

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